(And Introducing the I-Test)
I re-calculated my PAWS draft model with all of the updated data from the NCAA tournament, and just like everyone's mock draft, Karl-Anthony Towns moves up but narrowly moves misses the number one position. Basically the model puts the two big freshman as the top two in a tier by themselves, and higher than anyone in last year's class.
The next tier is tournament MOP, Tyus Jones and Ohio State shooting guard D'Angelo Russell. To date Jones's slight frame has held him back in most scouting rankings, and Layne Vashro has noted that Jones's lack of shots at the rim hold hi back in his model. However, his production, including his ability to get to the free throw line has been phenomenal for his age. He is also helped out by his high ranking coming out of high school, which historically has been a good indicator for players in the top ten ranking especially.
But, before the rankings, I am going to put up some visualizations of the statistics that go into the model, which I think gives a little better picture of the prospect's strengths and weaknesses.
First the centers:
Then the Power Forwards, where the model has Kevon Looney as the highest rated prospect:
Then the small forwards, with Stanley Johnson and Aleksander Vezenkov a 19 year old playing in Greece just ahead of Justise Winslow. Vezenkov, though, may need to play stretch four to have a chance to defend in the NBA
And the point guards:
In addition to my regular P-AWS draft rank I've added a Rookie Impact Test, (Rookie I-Test). This is a model just built off of rookie production, as such it is less powerful than the P-AWS model as it has less data to build from in the target variable and the early entry of the most talented players into the NBA means that the development curve has had less time to play out. The biggest difference between the two, other than the lower expected production for all players, is the lower impact age has on the model, so you will see some of the younger players with a lower I-Test ranking.
Here is my top forty: