I have been doing a series of studies on shot location in the NBA, breaking it down for guards, wings and big men. Naturally I could not help looking at how this applied to the Celtics.
Briefly, the series looks at shot location by position in the NBA with the help of a statistical technique called clustering, which looks for grouping patterns in data. (You can read about here if you are so inclined, but it's really not necessary). The analysis gave a some nice intuitive results with 'Good' cohesion that showed that, yes, there are fairly distinct groups of Slasher Guards and Wings as well as Three Point Specialist Guards and Wings. For the front court players I found three groups, guys who only shoot at arms length from the rim, hybrids that add a mid range game and Stretch Bigs.
The study is primarily intended to look at big groups in terms of analysis. But, it is interesting to see how it applies to individual players and rosters plus it provides a nice test of reasonableness bfore I go further. All that said and done this Celtics group is not a very stretchy roster, based on shot location last year. (For now I am ignoring the rookies).
The analysis rated only one of the current roster members as a 'Stretch' at their position, and that was Jeff Green because the HoopData.com data listed Green as a Power Forward. Of course, this year Green will play more of his time at small forward, so I changed his position and reran the Cluster analysis where Green was rated as a Slash Wing.
For reference, the Slash Wings average 35% of their shots at the rim and 21% from three, while the Stretch Wings took 19% of their shots at the rim and 56% from three point land.
| PlayerName | Pos | Pct Shots at Rim |
Pct Shots 3-9 Ft |
Pct Mid Range (10-15) |
Pct Shots from Long Two (16-23) |
Pct Shot from Three |
Group |
| Jeff Green | SF/PF | 38.61% | 11.93% | 5.23% | 19.97% | 24.26% | Slash Wing |
| Keith Bogans | SF | 7.02% | 1.75% | 0.00% | 4.56% | 86.67% | Stretch Wing |
| Gerald Wallace | SF | 45.43% | 7.31% | .91% | 9.13% | 37.12% | Slash Wing |
Crash is a slasher and that's a good thing given his poor three point shooting. When Green is considered a small forward he also rates as a Slasher. These numbers are based on his overall shooting tendencies, but looking at NBA WOWY Green shot a lower percent of his shots from three without Pierce on the court last year than with Pierce on the court, indicating he is likely remain a Slash Wing.
Hoop Data also listed Bogans as a small forward last year. I kept him there because he may see more time there than in the crowded back court, especially if Wallace or Green miss any time. In any case, Bogans is pretty much exclusively a three point shooter at this point.
Next let's look at the Guards. The break downs on the Guards were similar to the Wings. Slashing Guards took 33% of their shots at the hoop and 23% from three, while Three Point Specialist took 19% at the rim and 49% from downtown.
| PlayerName | Pos | Pct Shots at Rim |
Pct Shots 3-9 Ft |
Pct Mid Range (10-15) |
Pct Shots from Long Two (16-23) |
Pct Shot from Three |
Group |
| Avery Bradley | PG | 30.04% | 4.71% | 4.71% | 34.08% | 26.46% | Slashing Guard |
| Courtney Lee | SG | 32.75% | 6.27% | 6.47% | 23.92% | 30.59% | Slashing Guard |
| Jordan Crawford | SG | 26.46% | 12.17% | 8.99% | 14.81% | 37.57% | Slashing Guard |
| Marshon Brooks | SG | 35.60% | 20.43% | 10.53% | 16.10% | 17.34% | Slashing Guard |
| Rajon Rondo | PG | 40.44% | 11.33% | 6.44% | 30.67% | 11.11% | Slashing Guard |
No secrets here. The Celtics guards, as a group, are Slashers. Jordan Crawford was the only Guard on the fence of Stretch Shot selection last year. Let that sink in...
In addition, only Courtney Lee at 37.8% hit from three was above the league average for Guards of 36.3% per the NBA Geek. A Rondo and Brooks back court would have spacing issues, to say the least, as they were justifiably shy shooting threes hitting only 24% and 27% respectively. Bradley also struggled with his threes last year, though he had been much better the year before his shoulder surgeries.
Finally the bigs.
|
PlayerName
|
Pos
|
Pct Shots
at Rim |
Pct Shots
3-9 Ft |
Pct Mid Range
(10-15) |
Pct Shots from
Long Two (16-23) |
Pct Shot
from Three |
Group
|
| Brandon Bass | PF | 26.67% | 8.83% | 18.38% | 45.77% | 0.00% | Hybrid Big |
| Jared Sullinger | PF | 49.55% | 17.27% | 5.91% | 25.00% | 2..27% | Hybrid Big |
| Jeff Green | SF/PF | 38.61% | 11.93% | 5.23% | 19.97% | 24.26% | Slash Wing |
| Kris Humphries | PF | 48.03% | 15.46% | 12.50% | 23.36% | 0.00% | Hybrid Big |
Brandon Bass is interesting because he's close to being a Stretch Big without ever shooting from beyond the arc once. The Celtics also have rookies Kelly Olynyk and Vitor Faverani joining the front court this year, both of whom have some range, though I don't see Faverani as a true Stretch Big. They also have the option to go small with Green or Wallace at the Four, though it's not an option I love, so forget I said it.
I don't really have the data at this point to indicate the actual importance of 'stretch' in offensive efficiency. But, it looks as though the Celtics may be preparing to give it an interesting test, especially in the back court. So, that's kind of cool, right?
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