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Blake Pengelly

Great post! I've been waiting for someone to combine this data and show shot value for a long time. How about the % chance that you get fouled from different shot locations? Shouldn't that also be added into the shot value? Not only is getting to the FT line the most efficient way to score but defensive possessions following made free throws are even better than defensive possessions after a made FG. I would love to see a total combined value of shot locations that includes the chance of being offensive rebounded, the chance of getting fouled, and the chance of making the shot in the first place.

Thanks for your work


Blake- You're right. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find the data anywhere. At this point all I could do would be to look at the correlations, which I might do at some point.


I am curious about whether this disadvantages 3's a little bit-
Presuming these numbers, if you take 100 shots at the rim
you'll make 64 and rebound 14 (and score something around 14 more points) for a total of 142, or an efg% of 70%.
if you take 100 3's
you'll make 36 and rebound 18 (and score something around 18 more points) for a total of 126 which is an efg% of 63% which is a lot closer battle than what you suggest.


StLHawk- The way I am thinking about it is to only credit the shooter with the marginal difference in retaining possession. The rest of the value is apportioned to the rebounder.

I might be confusing things with the name I chose in terms of "offense" value, rather than shot.


Got it-I was thinking team level value.

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