Tossing aside my milquetoast-y luke warm-ish semi-endorsement of starting Jordan Crawford at the point, like so much warm milquetoast, Brad Stevens has, more or less, come out in favor of starting Avery Bradley at the Point. My actual case was that Bradley is ill suited to be a Point Guard and is playing out of position whenever he's stationed there.
In contrast, Stevens said a bunch of things which are true, but address completely different points, via Celtics Hub:
Stevens said Avery Bradley may indeed see the bulk of the point guard duties until Rondo finds his way back from offseason knee surgery.
"I don’t think there is any doubt that Avery has elite ability in a lot of ways as a point guard," Stevens said at TD Garden yesterday morning, where he was a guest at the breakfast to promote November’s Coaches vs. Cancer college basketball tripleheader. "He’s an elite defender at the position. He’s an elite athlete at the point guard position. I think he’s a guy that’s gotten better. I think he’s a guy with more confidence, and I think he’s excited about the challenge if Rajon is out."
No doubt Avery Bradley is an elite defender, an elite athlete, and a fierce competitor excited for the opportunity to play while Rondo is out. None of these things mean that he has a NBA point guard handle or passing ability.
In my last post I closed with this table breaking down the attributes I thought one should weigh and balance in setting up a back court rotation, which I would like to discuss a bit more here.
| Creators | Stretch | Rim Attack | Defense |
| Crawford | Lee | Brooks | Bradley |
| Pressey | Crawford | Lee | Lee |
| Brooks | Bogans | Crawford | Bogans |
| Bradley | Bradley | Bradley | Pressey |
| Lee | Pressey | Pressey | Crawford |
| Bogans | Brooks | Bogans | Brooks |
On Celtics media day Stevens specifically mentioned two items on the table above; defense (though I think NBA coaches get fined if they fail to prominently mention the importance of defense, it's called the D'Antoni Rule) and spacing.
On defense there's no question Bradley is the Celtic's best back court option, especially on ball defense. Courtney Lee is likely a fairly distant second. This is backed up by the defensive xRAPM numbers for the Celtic's guards.
| Name | Def. xRAPM |
| Avery Bradley | -0.25 |
| Rajon Rondo | -0.65 |
| Courtney Lee | -1.38 |
| Keith Bogans | -1.73 |
| Jordan Crawford | -2.13 |
| MarShon Brooks | -2.3 |
In terms of spacing, Lee is the top Celtic guard, with a career 38.4% mark from three point land and borderline 'Stretch' score in terms of shot location. Bradley had a down shooting season as did Marshon Brooks, though Bradley's down year three point percentage matched Brook's up year. The prudent early estimate would be to bracket the number between the two years for both, which would put Bradley as a mid-thirties three shooter, certainly enough to make defenses concerned about him out on the line.
One thing to add in terms of ability to get to the rim among Celtic's guards. I am not sure how this play's into Stevens' line up decisions, but getting to the basket generates some of the most efficient shots and can cause break downs for defense. Below I have my stats on the Celtics guards proficiency getting to the basket. It also shows a little something about new Celtic Marshon Brook's offensive game, which revolves around his ability to get to the rim and score often and effectively.
| Attempts at Rim per 48 minutes |
Pct Assisted at Rim |
Field Goal Pct at Rim |
|
| Avery Bradley-BOS-2013 | 4.57 | 46.40 | 51.50 |
| Courtney Lee-BOS-2013 | 4.17 | 53.60 | 65.90 |
| Jordan Crawford-BOS-2013 | 4.34 | 37.90 | 58.00 |
| Keith Bogans-BKN-2013 | 0.68 | 46.70 | 75.00 |
| Marshon Brooks-BKN-2013 | 5.89 | 36.70 | 68.70 |
| Rajon Rondo-BOS-2013 | 6.14 | 15.90 | 62.10 |
| Average | 4.30 | 39.53 | 63.53 |
Stevens has stated that he wants the Celtics to run this year, which may be a necessity to generate points. But, as much as all teams want to run, someone still has to handle the ball in the half court, since every defense is intent on stopping you from running. Here's the issue with the Bradley/Lee back court, they're the two of least proficient guard Shot Creators the C's have. Of course, there's no rule the back court must handle the ball, as we saw last year with Paul Pierce and that guy in Miami.
With that in mind, we can look at the ball handling numbers for the Celtics front court.
| Player- Team- Yr | Pct Two Point Offense Assisted |
Total Field Offense Assisted |
AST Pct | TOV Pct |
| 6 | 10.90% | |||
| Gerald Wallace-BKN-2013 | 63.12% | 74.25 | 13.3 | 16.90% |
| Jared Sullinger-BOS-2013 | 55.05% | 55.66 | 6.2 | 10.30% |
| Jeff Green-BOS-2013 | 50.33% | 60.02 | 9.6 | 12.50% |
| Kris Humphries-BKN-2013 | 72.81% | 72.81 | 4.3 | 13.50% |
| Kelly Olynyk-Gonzaga-2013 | 54.59% | 62.68 | 15.10 | 15.40% |
| Vitor Faverani-Valencia-2013 | 8.29 | 20.46% |
Most of the true bigs don't look like much help handling the ball. Humphries beats No Pass Bass in a race to the bottom on assist percentage. Not to put too fine a point on it, a Humphries/Bass/Green/Lee/Bradley line up has the potential to be shut down as a breeding ground for mosquitoes and have the lowest assist to turnover percentages of any starting NBA line up.
Vitor Faverani's painful tun over percentage comes via Basketball RealGM. I had heard Faverani had turnover issues, but it looks like his time on the court is going to be largely determined by his ability to keep track of the ball.
Green scored the best last year at being able to create shots, with Sullinger (off of offensive rebounds?) and Olynyk's college numbers right behind. I actually think Wallace's Creation numbers are a bit deceptive, his assisted shot percentages were lower in 2012 and, according to NBA WoWy his percentage of shots assisted numbers plunged in the, relatively few, possessions he was on the court without Deron Williams.
In terms of passing, Olynyk, the former Point Guard, is clearly the most interesting front court player on the roster. His 15.1% assist percentage was among the highest in college ball last year for Bigs, and puts him at the top of the Boston front court players.
Ok, long story short. The best Celtic's guard tandem in terms of Defense and Spacing, is also the weakest in terms of ball handling duties. That creates a conundrum, if the coaching staff is going to start them together Lee and Bradley will need help in the half court.
Comments